Greaves Electric Mobility anticipates that sales of electric scooters would increase to 700,000 units in FY23, up from 250,000 units in FY22.
Greaves Electric Mobility (GEM), which sells the Ampere brand of electric scooters, forecasts that the tipping point for converting ICE scooters to electric scooters would be achieved in FY23, accounting for 4-5 percent of the overall two-wheeler market. In FY22, the market penetration of electric two-wheelers was less than 2%.
Nagesh A Basavanhalli, the executive vice-chairman of Greaves Cotton Ltd, of which Greaves Mobility is a part, elaborates on the company’s optimistic outlook: “Our forecast is that the industry will sell 700,000 electric scooters this fiscal year, up from 250,000 in FY 22.” This will be the true tipping moment, as electric scooter penetration will reach 4-5 percent.”
He also estimates that by 2027, up to 35% of ICE scooters, which currently sell for roughly 6-7 million per year, would be converted to electric. Per the Basavanhalli, the confidence stems from the fact that, whereas GEM sold over 65,000 electric scooters in fiscal year 22, in the first quarter of fiscal year 23, it sold nearly half that number — approximately 29,577. Therefore, the business is tripling its capacity to produce 25,000 electric scooters every month.
Though he admits that incidences of electric scooters catching fire were disappointing, Basavanhalli notes that the chip scarcity that had plagued the sector in the previous two to three quarters is gradually subsiding. However, based on total registrations (of eight businesses, excluding incumbent ICE participants), the market has been either flat or declining month over month since May of this year. For example, registrations declined 5% in July compared to June. In addition, there was a 24% drop in May compared to April.
“We focused on the core of the market, which includes around 150 million homes.” We see a price-volume relationship in this area, and we can operate successfully here,” adds Basavanhalli. However, after acquiring Ampere, which was valued at barely Rs 40,000, the corporation has been increasing its average selling price. It is also developing devices with greater range, speed, and features that will be priced above Rs 1 lakh. GEM anticipates announcing them in the next quarters.
The market is still developing with lithium-ion alternatives like sodium ion, as per Basavanhalli, and they need a lot of cash. GEM, he adds, has contacts with several firms that will produce the batteries in the nation and intends to purchase from them. However, he concedes that the business is still in negotiations with the government about participating in the PLI plan for creating electric two-wheelers, which has already been approved for Ola Electric, Bajaj Auto, and TVS. Unfortunately, because GEM is neither a startup nor a major corporation, the net value required to be eligible for the PLI plan was too high, according to Basavanhalli.
The best-performing sector, according to the most recent sales figures, is still electric two-wheelers. While the majority of the players have been doing reasonably well, others have fallen behind. Nevertheless, the entire electric two-wheeler industry remains strong. GEM, for example, sells EVs such as two-wheelers Ampere, three-wheelers ELE, and auto rickshaw Teja. In FY22, it sold 51,794 two-wheelers and 10,348 three-wheelers, with over 100% year-on-year growth in both categories. According to statistics from Vahan, Ampere had a market share of 14.8% in May 2022 and the business anticipates maintaining a 10% market share in the market for electric two-wheelers.
But, unlike one of its competitors, Ola Electric, which has gone with direct delivery to consumers, GEM now has 650 retail distributors and wants to add 20-30 more every month and has concentrated on the Rs 80,000-90,000 market sweet spot. Electric 2W producers are actually operating in the spotlight. Consequently, making them one of the top players in this EV movement is essential for establishing them as a viable brand.